Week 10 TNF and Injury News
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We’re previous the midway mark of the season, and I’ve by no means felt this confused so deep into the yr. Arizona’s JV squad beat the 49ers’ varsity workforce. Cincinnati has gone from the highest of the AFC North to the underside in two weeks. And don’t overlook the Josh Allen on Josh Allen violence in Florida. We now have much less sense of who’s playoff-worthy this season, however we get handled to 1 participant that certainly deserves it. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens headline TNF as they head to Miami. I’ve put collectively some notes for the sport, alongside with all the information from Wednesday’s practices.
TNF Preview: Lamar Jackson – A Full Quarterback
It’s been two years since Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown had been in a position to head again dwelling to South Florida and play ball collectively. Of their first recreation collectively, they triggered a ruckus in Miami.
A lot has modified since then, however Jackson’s MVP-caliber play has been the supply of the Ravens’ success this season. However the actually outstanding half is the evolution of his recreation. His 1,206 speeding yards and 9.0% landing charge headlined his 2019 MVP marketing campaign as Baltimore leveraged his mobility to freeze defensive secondaries. Nevertheless, Jackson and the Ravens have re-invented themselves this season whereas staying atop the AFC North standings.
The 2019 Ravens had been bottom-5 in practically each passing metric exterior of deep-ball charge however had been top-5 in offensive DVOA, EPA per play, and yards per drive. They’ve flipped the script this yr, sit at 14th in go charge over expectation, and are nonetheless top-12 in every metric. Jackson is top-10 in whole passing yards, yards on passes of 20 air yards or extra, and nonetheless pacing for his third straight season of 1,000-plus speeding yards. He’s commanded this offense all whereas they’ve dealt with 13 season-ending accidents on either side of the ball. Nevertheless, regardless of the losses, their offense matches up nicely with the Dolphins’ protection, particularly with Sammy Watkins returning to the lineup.
Miami is twenty fifth in defensive DVOA, and their secondary is twenty third in EPA per dropback allowed. They’ve allowed a minimum of one passing landing to each quarterback aside from Tyrod Taylor, who was only one week faraway from a six-week stint on IR. Josh Allen is the one true cell quarterback they’ve confronted, and he’s averaged 45 yards in opposition to Miami’s entrance (alongside with a rating in Week 8). However their go protection is much more attractive for folk rostering Ravens’ pass-catchers.
Exterior receivers have had a troublesome time with Byron Jones and Xavien Howard manning the perimeter. Mike Evans is the one receiver to put up greater than 70 yards in opposition to them (Week 5, 4-70-1). In flip, groups have turned to the slot.
Over half of the passing touchdowns scored in opposition to Miami have come from the inside (52.9%). Cole Beasley (Week 8, 8-96-0) and Kyle Pitts (Week 7, 6-96-0) had been extremely productive throughout their outings, establishing nicely for Watkins and Mark Andrews. Nevertheless, the hope is that Miami’s offense can battle again sufficient to maintain the Ravens’ offense on the sector all 4 quarters. We don’t even know who the quarterback might be but.
Miami is down unhealthy, of us. DeVante Parker and Will Fuller are on IR, and Tua Tagovailoa would possibly miss his fifth recreation. Expectations ought to be low as a result of the workforce’s output predictably falls with Jacoby Brissett below middle. Their yards per drive drops (32.3 to 26.4), they usually convert fewer first downs (20.5 to 18.5) whereas sustaining their typical tempo of play. It might look dire with out Tagovailoa, however the Ravens have a few flaws on protection.
They’ve been prone to explosive performs as their secondary lacks the velocity they’ve had in years previous. Three of the final 4 enemy quarterbacks to face them have all related on passes of 40 yards or extra for touchdowns. Baltimore has additionally been pleasant to opposing tight-ends. 5 tight-ends account for 42.9% of the whole touchdowns scored in opposition to the Ravens. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki may be Miami’s solely hope for achievement tonight, however they’ve bought a path to giving Miami an opportunity.
Factors of Curiosity in TNF
For Baltimore, my curiosity lies within the pass-catching group. Particularly, how the targets shake out. Will probably be the primary time their receiving corps might be at full energy, assuming Watkins performs. Targets earned, goal depth, and sorts of routes run will give an perception into how the workforce envisions the offense shifting ahead. We could have gotten a glimpse over the past couple of video games.
Sure, Jackson hits Brown for a landing however rewind the clip to the start. Let’s begin with the formation. Discover they’re utilizing a three-receiver set (20 personnel). Baltimore’s used three receivers on 49.5% of Jackson’s makes an attempt over the past two weeks. The Ravens eclipsed that very same charge in a single recreation simply as soon as over the season’s first month. With an improve in personnel, we will see an much more various passing assault from Baltimore.
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Watkins seemingly replaces Duvernay within the slot, and the veteran has had the upper aDOT from the inside (15.1 vs. 2.8). That very same shot to Brown might have Watkins on the different finish of it tonight. Or, Jackson might look to Bateman on the perimeter. Worst-case state of affairs, the check-down choice to Freeman or Bell is accessible. And we haven’t even talked about Jackson’s speeding skill. Miami’s protection can have a troublesome time defending the Ravens, particularly with a totally operational passing assault.
My essential curiosity in Miami is their backfield. We all know who the focal factors are within the passing recreation whatever the quarterback. I wish to assume Gaskin continues his takeover of the operating again touches, but it surely’s been robust to belief.
It’s robust to anticipate a lot fantasy output even with the workload, although. However, to be honest, it’s not fully Gaskin’s fault. Houston’s offensive line is ranked useless final in Soccer Outsider’s adjusted line yards. Plus, it’s not like Gaskin’s competitors has carried out a lot better. Salvon Ahmed has a 28.2% success charge on his carries and has but to earn greater than three targets. The expectation is for Gaskin to keep up his position because the lead, however with simply two wins on the season, Miami would possibly strive something.
Let’s begin the week off with some excellent news.
Carson’s neck damage has saved him sidelined since Week 4. His return, alongside with Russell Wilson’s, comes on the good time. Seattle will face two divisional opponents over the following month because the Seahawks look to enhance their playoff potential. Hopefully, neither has any setbacks as they enter the second half of their season. Kansas Metropolis additionally had some assist returning to the sector on Wednesday.
It’s been a month since we’ve seen Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the sector. Throughout that point, the Chiefs have appeared much less just like the Chiefs of previous. Plus, the backfield has gotten extra complicated with the emergence of Derrick Gore. Nevertheless, Patrick Mahomes has focused his operating backs (principally Darrel Williams) 14 occasions within the final two weeks. They noticed 13 targets the entire first month of the season. Edwards-Helaire could by no means reside as much as his draft price (actual or fantasy), however there might be a job for him within the Chiefs’ offense ought to he return in Week 10. T.Y. Hilton is making an attempt to do the identical in preparation for the weekend.
The veteran receiver has dealt with a number of accidents already this season however was again to observe yesterday. It’s a optimistic signal as Frank Reich rapidly dominated Hilton out forward of their Thursday night time matchup in Week 9. Michael Pittman has carried out nicely in Hilton’s absence, however the workforce might use a extra dependable presence on the perimeter. We’ll see if Hilton might be wanted because the Colts gear as much as face the Jaguars, but it surely’s good to see him again nonetheless.
Now, let’s get to the unhealthy information.
What was hypothesis is now a certainty: Sam Darnold will miss a major period of time. PJ Walker is the short-term resolution, however the Panthers are exploring any and all choices. It’s been an absolute rollercoaster as Darnold appeared to have shed the Gase from his system solely to regress, get injured, and have the workforce different choices. Walker’s a wildcard below middle, which places gamers like D.J. Moore in danger. Nevertheless, it may well’t get a lot worse than the previous few weeks.
Chris Godwin popped up on the damage report with a foot damage placing his Week 10 availability doubtful. In the meantime, Antonio Brown continues to get better from his ankle damage, and Rob Gronkowski isn’t anticipated to play. Mike Evans turns into the focus of passing offense alongside with Tyler Johnson and comeback-kid Breshad Perriman. The Buccaneers could also be short-handed this week however ought to have sufficient to tackle Washington popping out of their bye. I can’t say the identical for Arizona.
It was only a walkthrough, however the record of DNPs is regarding. Kyler Murray’s, DeAndre Hopkins’, and Chase Edmonds’ absences aren’t a lot of a shock as they had been both out on Sunday or injured in the course of the recreation. Rondale Moore being within the concussion protocol is a shocker. He performed a season-high 81% of the workforce snaps, and there isn’t an in-game report that implies he was despatched to the medical tent. It leaves Christian Kirk because the lone wholesome wideout for Arizona as we’ll want to watch observe stories forward of Sunday. New England has the same drawback.
Head accidents reduce the day quick for each Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson on Sunday. Any observe involvement could be a optimistic signal, however fantasy managers ought to be stashing both Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor as New England prepares to host the Browns. Cleveland has their very own points at operating again this week, too.
Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton examined optimistic for COVID-19 leaving D’Ernest Johnson as the following man up. Chubb and Felton are totally vaccinated, so two optimistic exams would restore them to the lively roster in time to play on Sunday. Jarvis Landry additionally missed observe however was seemingly given a relaxation day and seen on the aspect subject. His standing isn’t doubtful for Week 10, however price keeping track of over the following couple of days. All eyes might be on the Saints’ observe stories, too.
In-game stories famous Alvin Kamara going to the medical tent in the course of the Saints matchup in opposition to Atlanta. Kamara rejoined the workforce, completed the sport however missed observe on Wednesday. Mark Ingram is already as much as 11 touches per recreation since his return to New Orleans in Week 8, and Taysom Hill could begin in Week 10. All level to a downtick in utilization for Kamara, however we a minimum of need him again on the observe subject earlier than the weekend. Pittsburgh desires the identical for his or her playmakers.
Ben Roethlisberger has usually began the week with a restricted observe, so a DNP is a priority. Nevertheless, he did communicate to the native media, instilling some confidence in his availability for Sunday. Claypool’s absence is one other matter. His MRI didn’t point out a season-ending damage however thought of “week-to-week” because the workforce assesses his well being. Denver a minimum of has a participant returning to go with their prolonged damage report.
The Broncos activated Noah Fant off of the reserve/COVID-19 record, and he returned to observe on Wednesday. The timing couldn’t be higher as Albert Okwuegbunam and Tim Patrick had been DNP’s. Patrick was seen on the aspect subject whereas Okwuegbunam is dealing with a knee damage sustained on Sunday. Friday’s report ought to give us a greater thought as to how each are faring. Lastly, let’s take a look at Jacksonville’s personnel.
After struggling a heel damage in Week 8, Robinson missed final week’s recreation leaving Carlos Hyde as the first rusher. Robinson equally opens Week 10 with a DNP leaving his standing for the weekend doubtful. City Meyer indicated Robinson “could probably do more,” so we might even see him again out on the sector earlier than the weekend.
Jobber Wiki creator Frank Lengthy added to this report.