Week 10 Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em
Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.
(Notable QBs on bye: Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields)
Start of the Week: Dak Prescott vs. Falcons — Prescott (calf) returned from his one-week absence last Sunday against the Broncos but had about as off of a game we’ve seen from him, as he went 19-of-39, finishing a season-worst 48.7% of his tosses, for 232 lawns and a set of garbage-time goals after Dallas fell in a 30-0 hole. He still ended up as the week’s QB9 thanks to the late goals to deep reserve WR Malik Turner. Week 10 provides a bounce-back chance with Atlanta 26th in dream points enabled to quarterbacks and 28th in pass-defense DVOA. The Falcons are 31st in changed sack rate and 29th in challenger plays per video game over the last 3 weeks while the Cowboys are No. 1 in lawns per play on the year. It’s difficult not to enjoy this area for all of Dallas’ ability gamers, from Prescott and the whole pass-game toolbox to Ezekiel Elliott and even Tony Pollard in the backfield. This video game’s 54.5-point overall is the greatest of the week, and the Cowboys’ implied overall of 31.25 points is likewise tops on the week. Both the Cowboys (3rd) and Falcons (ninth) field 2 of the league’s faster-paced offenses. Playing under the JerryWorld roofing, we have beautiful conditions and dream fireworks.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Seahawks — Rodgers is due back from his remain on the COVID list after missing out on recently’s loss to the Chiefs where Jordan Love laid an egg in his very first profession start. Rodgers took a lot of heat for deceiving the media and those around him that he was “immunized,” and understanding Rodgers’ character, he’s going to wish to head out there Sunday and push it down everybody’s throats with his play. The Seahawks are 12th in dream points enabled to quarterbacks however 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted sack rate. Seattle is likewise dead last in challenger plays per video game. With a completely healthy supporting cast now that Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are off the COVID list and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is back from I.R., this is a possible ceiling area for Rodgers. Preferred by 3 points in your home in a video game with a decent 49-point overall, we might see a back-and-forth video game. Russell Wilson (finger) is back for Seattle on the other side, which ought to juice this contest’s shootout capacity.
Carson Wentz vs. Jaguars — Fresh off incinerating the Jets for 272 lawns and 3 goals at 9.07 lawns per effort en path to the QB5 week, Wentz now gets a date with the division-rival Jaguars. Jacksonville is a pass-funnel system, signing in at 22nd in dream points enabled to quarterbacks, dead-last in pass-defense DVOA, and dead-last in adjusted sack rate. No. 8 versus the run, this is a defense that passing video games can assault. Wentz must have tidy pockets throughout the day with the Colts’ offending line nearing complete strength. The Jaguars are likewise 30th in challenger time of ownership, so the Colts must basically manage the ball Sunday. Preferred by 10 points in your home, Indy’s indicated group overall of 28.75 points is the fourth-highest of the week. T.Y. Hilton (concussion) is due back for the Colts today, providing Wentz a complete toolbox that consists of Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, the TEs, and Jonathan Taylor.
Derek Carr vs. Chiefs — Carr actually missed out on Henry Ruggs’ downfield existence recently versus the Giants. Carr was among the most aggressive deep-ball passers throughout the very first 2 months of the season, however he balanced simply 6.43 lawns per effort on 46 tosses last Sunday, tossing simply one goal and a set of choices as the dream week’s QB19. Vegas is right in the thick of the playoff hunt and understood it required to change Ruggs. After DeSean Jackson was launched by the Rams, the Raiders rapidly signed him after Ruggs’ arrest. Jackson has actually been practicing all week, and Carr kept in mind how good it is to have his speed on the exterior. The Raiders are now returning house for a substantial Sunday night date with the division-rival Chiefs, who are 30th in dream points enabled to quarterbacks, 27th in pass-defense DVOA, and 30th in adjusted sack rate. This defense has actually been beaten like a drum all year and hasn’t at all presented a hard match for quarterbacks. This video game’s 52-point overall is the third-highest of the week.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Saints — In the Titans’ very first video game following Derrick Henry’s (most likely) season-ending foot injury, Tennessee headed out and boat-raced the Rams on the back of its high-flying defense. Tannehill’s 27 pass efforts were his second-fewest of the season, and he published season-lows with 143 lawns and 5.3 lawns per effort. OC Todd Downing attempted to remain devoted to the Titans’ offending identity, feeding the brand-new backfield trio of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols, and D’Onta Supervisor a combined 22 brings. In all probability, the Titans are going to end up being more pass-heavy in the wake of Henry’s injury. However Tannehill’s weapons is A.J. Brown, an injury-ruined Julio Jones who’s essentially on the edge of retirement, and a lot of other no ones. The ceiling just isn’t there for Tannehill, and he now gets a New Orleans defense that is a middling 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 13th in pass-defense DVOA, 14th in opponent plays per game, and 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Facing a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian under center and seems likely to be without Alvin Kamara (knee) this week, the Titans may be able to just control this one with their running backs while Tannehill sprinkles in a lot of targets to Brown. Tannehill is more of a mid-range QB2.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Rams — Garoppolo posted the QB8 week last Sunday in the Niners’ embarrassing home blowout loss to the Kyler Murray- and DeAndre Hopkins-less Cardinals. Garoppolo threw for a season-high 326 yards and posted simply his second multi-touchdown passing game of the year, but he did it with the aid of garbage time. He’s gone over 300 yards in back-to-back games and is dream’s overall QB3 the last two weeks. He uncharacteristically rushed for a pair of touchdowns in Week 8 against the Bears, however. The Rams were embarrassed by the Titans last Sunday night, but it was no fault of their defense, as they held Ryan Tannehill to a season-worst 143 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt. Los Angeles is 10th in fantasy points enabled to quarterbacks, 12th in adjusted sack rate, and No. 5 in pass-defense DVOA. The Rams now add Von Miller to their defensive front and got No. 2 CB Darious Williams back from injured reserve last week. San Francisco is implied to score just 22.75 points, the 10th-lowest team total of Week 10. Garoppolo is a low-end QB2.
Baker Mayfield at Patriots — Mayfield can now play more free now that Odell Beckham is gone. With OBJ off the team last week, Mayfield had one of his best passing days of the season in the Browns’ demolition of the Bengals, going 14-of-21 as a passer for 218 yards (10.38 YPA) and a pair of touchdowns. Cleveland wrecked Cincinnati 41-16, so Mayfield obviously didn’t have to throw much. The Browns’ plan every week is to limit Mayfield’s pass attempts, and this Sunday will be no different in what projects to be one of the least-friendly fantasy environments. Both the Browns and Patriots want to run the ball, control the clock, and play things slow. Cleveland is 29th in offensive pace, and the Patriots are No. 4 in challenger plays per video game over the last three weeks. And both offenses are top-nine in run-play percentage. It’s all reflected in this game’s 45.5-point total, which is tied for the fourth-lowest of the week. Mayfield is the overall QB28 on the season in fantasy points per game but is coming off the QB11 last Sunday.
(Notable RBs on bye: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Saquon Barkley)
Start of the Week: James Conner vs. Panthers — Backfield mate Chase Edmonds was injured one snap into Week 9 and is believed to have suffered a high-ankle sprain that could land him on injured reserve. That would cost Edmonds three games. In his absence, Conner steamrolled the 49ers for 173 total yards and three touchdowns on 26 touches. He caught all five of his targets in the passing game, turning them into 77 yards and one score. Conner set season-highs across the board against San Francisco, playing 77% of the snaps. Conner entered Week 9 with five targets on the season. If he can absorb Edmonds’ pass-game role and still get all the goal-line work, Conner will be a cinch RB1 after turning in last week’s overall RB1 performance. Conner leads the league with 10 red-zone touchdowns. He’s been extremely efficient at the goal line and has 11 total touchdowns over his last seven games. Conner is fantasy’s overall RB4 across Weeks 3-9. He now gets a date with a Carolina defense that is third in fantasy points allowed to running backs and second in opponent plays per game but still checks in at 19th in run-defense DVOA. The Panthers are yielding 4.4 YPC to opposing running backs, and Conner is averaging 4.87 yards per tote over the last four weeks after averaging 3.19 YPC Weeks 1-5. The Cardinals are 10.5-point home favorites Sunday, and Conner should be the focal point of the offense with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins at less than full health.
Mark Ingram at Titans — This is assuming Alvin Kamara (knee) misses Sunday’s game after not practicing Wednesday and Thursday. Ace Saints beat writer Nick Underhill labeled Kamara as “probably doubtful” for Week 10. Ingram has looked rejuvenated in two games since being reacquired by the Saints, rushing 15 times for 70 yards (4.67 YPC) and catching all seven of his targets for 46 yards. If Kamara sits, Ingram can likely be penciled in for 15-plus touches in a Saints offense that runs the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The Titans have played strong run defense, checking in at No. 9 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they’re surrendering 4.5 YPC and are 24th in run-defense DVOA while the Saints’ offensive line is one of the best in the league and comes in at No. 8 in adjusted line yards. Even if Kamara does play, there’s enough here to warrant some FLEX consideration for Ingram.
Javonte Williams vs. Eagles — Both Melvin Gordon and Williams are pretty much splitting work right down the middle in a slow-paced, vanilla Denver offense. But with the Broncos wrecking the Cowboys last week, we got to see Gordon and Williams each handle 17-plus touches. Gordon has four touchdowns over the last three weeks, and Williams continues to run over defenders. He posted his first 100-yard game of the season last Sunday but has just one rushing score on the year. Gordon has out-carriEd Williams 19-12 in the red zone and 9-8 inside the 10-yard line, out-scoring Williams 3-1 on such carries. Williams’ monster Week 9 was enough of a reason to give him more work going forward, but Gordon is just playing too well in the scoring area to push him out of the way. Williams is second to only Nick Chubb is Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating out of the backfield, which is a metric based on broken tackles and yards after contact. Williams was compared to Edgerrin James by head coach Vic Fangio this week. The Eagles are 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 20th in run-defense DVOA while checking in at 26th in opponent plays per game. Both offenses are expected to hammer the run in a game with a 2.5-point spread. Williams is a passable RB2.
J.D. McKissic vs. Bucs — Since the start of Week 6, McKissic is the overall RB29 in half-PPR points per game with 20 catches on 24 targets, adding 15-77-0 on the ground. McKissic has out-snapped backfield mate Antonio Gibson each of the last three games. WIth Washington now hosting Tampa Bay as nine-point home underdogs, this sets up as a McKissic game. The Bucs have allowed the fewest rushing yards in football but have surrendered the seventh-most catches to running backs. With a pair of eight-catch games over the last three outings, McKissic is someone worth firing up in PPR-based scoring formats as an RB3/FLEX option.
Antonio Gibson vs. Bucs — Gibson (shin) can’t stay healthy and is now losing snaps to rookie Jaret Patterson, who out-carried Gibson 11-8 last time out against the Broncos. Losing early-down work and already a near-zero in the pass game because of J.D. McKissic, Gibson just can’t be trusted as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB2/3. Hopefully the bye week did Gibson some good, but he’s still on the injury report getting in limited practices. The Bucs present maybe Gibson’s toughest matchup of the season. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in rushing yards allowed, No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and No. 4 in run-defense DVOA. Washington’s implied group total of 21 points is the seventh-lowest of the week.
Boston Scott at Broncos — In the two games without Miles Sanders (ankle, I.R.), Scott leads the Philadelphia backfield in snaps with 54, edging out Jordan Howard (39) and Kenneth Gainwell (31), but Howard seems to be the preferred back at the goal line while Gainwell is still the guy in passing situations. Scott is somewhat stuck in no-man’s land. Howard is the overall RB11 over the last two weeks with three touchdown runs. And this is probably the toughest matchup the Eagles have seen since Sanders’ injury. Denver is 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and No. 3 in opponent plays per game. This projects as an extreme low-volume game featuring a pair of offenses that want to run the ball as much as possible and drain clock.
AJ Dillon vs. Seahawks — Dillon has seen double-digit touches in five of the Packers’ last six games, but he has zero rushing touchdowns on the season. Aaron Jones still has a stranglehold on the money touches, out-carrying Dillon 28-10 in the red zone, 13-4 inside the 10-yard line, and 5-0 inside the five. Jones is the touchdown-scorer, so Dillon is going to have to bust a big run to find the end zone. The Seahawks are 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and dead last in opponent plays per game, but they’re surrendering just 4.07 YPC to the position and come in at 11th in run-defense DVOA. A lot of the fantasy production by running backs has come via receiving output, as Seattle has allowed the fourth-most catches for the second-most yards to the position. Dillon has just 14 catches on the season. He’s a low-floor RB3 option.
(Notable WRs on bye: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney)
Start of the Week: Mike Williams vs. Vikings — Fantasy’s overall WR1 over the first five weeks of the season, Williams is in a dry spell with consecutive scoreless receiving lines of 2-27, 2-19, and 2-58 on a total of 15 targets in that span. He has exactly five targets and two catches each of the last three outings and is the WR91. Williams battled through a bit of a knee issue in Week 6 but is over that now and gets a date with a Minnesota secondary that remains without CB Patrick Peterson (hamstring, I.R.) and is 26th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Fellow beginning CBs Bashaud Breeland (groin) and Cameron Dantzler (ankle) have also been limited in practice today. The Vikings are 30th in opponent plays per game on the year while the Chargers are in the top third of the league in total offensive plays. This game’s 53-point total is the second-highest of the week. Los Angeles’ implied team total of 28 points is the fifth-highest of Week 10. This game environment doesn’t get much better.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Eagles — Jeudy has played two games since returning from his I.R. stint with a high-ankle sprain. He’s playing behind both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick as the Broncos’ WR3, but Jeudy is being schemed the ball with 12 targets to Patrick’s eight and Sutton’s six. Jeudy has secured 10 of those 12 targets for 108 scoreless yards and has stepped right back in as Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target. Running over 86% of his routes out of the slot, Jeudy should avoid boundary CBs Darius Slay and Steven Nelson a lot of the afternoon. The weakness of the Philadelphia defense is inside, and that’s where Bridgewater likes to live as a passer. Slot WRs Keenan Allen (12-104) and Hunter Renfrow (7-58) have each had big games against this Eagles defense over Philly’s last three contests. Everything points toward Jeudy leading the Broncos in targets Sunday, and he should be getting healthier each and every week.
Marvin Jones at Colts — Jones has simply one touchdown since Week 2 and has mixed in four games of 35 yards or fewer and no touchdowns over the last five weeks. Perhaps his 31-year-old legs are starting to get heavier halfway through the season, but Jones’ underlying usage remains promising as the Jaguars’ snaps and routes leader at wideout while averaging 7.5 targets per contest. He’s popping in Establish the Run’s Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Buy-Low Model this week and now catches a Colts defense that is 28th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and 26th in pass-defense DVOA. Indy just coughed up 7-84-2 to Jets rookie WR Elijah Moore last week with teammate Keelan Cole pitching in for 5-66. A.J. Brown dusted this secondary for 10-155-1 the previous week. Deebo Samuel went for 7-100-1 the week before. And even Brandin Cooks hung a 9-89 line with Davis Mills in Week 6. Jones is a more volatile WR3 in an offense that wants to run the ball, but he has big-play and volume upside.
James Washington vs. Lions — Washington has now gone from reportedly requesting a trade earlier in the summer to now being the Steelers’ WR2 behind Diontae Johnson with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the year and Chase Claypool week to week with a toe injury. Washington will be the big-play threat opposite target hog Johnson. On three targets last week as the WR3, Washington turned in a 42-yard grab. He’s always been capable of beating defenses over the top, and quarterbacks trust him to win downfield. Washington will now be an every-down player and catches an easy matchup with a Lions unit that is 29th in pass-defense DVOA. Implied to score 25.25 points at home, this is a ceiling spot for the entire Pittsburgh offense.
Donovan Peoples-Jones at Patriots — Since Week 5, DPJ is the overall WR9 in half-PPR points per game. He’s averaging a robust 20.9 yards per catch on the season and has turned 11 grabs into 257 yards and three touchdowns over his last three appearances. With Odell Beckham out of town, Peoples-Jones is the Browns’ new WR2 behind slot man Jarvis Landry, and the sophomore wideout is Baker Mayfield’s top downfield option. DPJ will see a lot of Patriots No. 1 CB J.C. Jackson in this one, and New England is No. 6 in pass-defense DVOA and 13th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. In a game with a lackluster 46-point total that is expected to be dominated by defense and both team’s running games, it’s hard to get excited about any of the pass-catchers involved here. Consider DPJ a boom-or-bust WR4 play.
Christian Kirk vs. Panthers — Kirk played a season-high 96% of the offensive snaps last week and caught all six of his targets for 91 scoreless yards against the 49ers while catching passes from backup QB Colt McCoy. Kyler Murray is expected back this week, but so are starting WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green after both missed last week’s win. Kirk’s going to face a lot more competition for targets this Sunday and gets a tougher on-paper draw against a Carolina secondary that is sixth in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and fourth in pass-defense DVOA. Favored by double-digits at home and Murray being less than 100%, look for the Cardinals to try and ride James Conner to victory. Kirk is an unexciting WR4 facing stiffer target competition.
Elijah Moore vs. Bills — Moore published the overall WR1 week last week in the Jets’ Thursday night loss to the Colts, catching seven balls for 84 lawns and a pair of touchdowns. With Corey Davis (hip) out last week, Moore played his most snaps since Week 2 and set season-highs in targets and catches while catching the first two touchdowns of his career. Davis is now back in the lineup this week, and the Bills are No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA. Moore’s arrow is screaming upward, but this isn’t a favorable spot.
(Notable TEs on bye: C.J. Uzomah, Cole Kmet, Evan Engram)
Start of the Week: Kyle Pitts at Cowboys — With Calvin Ridley out the last two weeks, Pitts has been the focus of opposing defenses. He’s turned a promising 13 targets into simply five catches for 75 scoreless yards. Defenses are doubling him and taking Pitts away from Matt Ryan. But he’s still seeing the targets, and those targets have been down the field with big-play potential. Pitts is bound to break free, and Dallas presents a get-right spot. Pitts is essentially a wideout, and the Cowboys have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This game’s 54-point total is the highest of Week 10 and will be played under the JerryWorld roof in optimal weather conditions. Pitts should be teed up as a cinch TE1.
Dawson Knox at Jets — Knox hasn’t played since breaking his hand in Week 6 but practiced in full this week and is expected to be out there Sunday against the Jets. At the time of his injury, Knox was the overall TE4 in fantasy and had become an every-down player in Buffalo’s offense. He reeled in five touchdowns across Weeks 2-5 and will now catch a Jets defense that is 25th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and 29th in opponent plays per game. Knox is one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets in the red zone, and Buffalo has an implied team total of 29.25 points.
Dan Arnold at Colts — Arnold has yet to catch a touchdown this season but has drawn target counts of 8, 5, 10, and 7 in the last four games since his acquisition from the Panthers. He’s playing all of the passing downs for Jacksonville and has become one of Trevor Lawrence’s main targets in the middle of the field. The Colts have surrendered the third-most catches and sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Arnold is once again one of the top tight end streamers.
Tyler Conklin at Chargers — Conklin has just one touchdown on the season, coming all the way back in Week 3, but he’s eighth among all tight ends in snaps played during pass downs and 14th in routes run at the position. Conklin has been in on 79% of the snaps and is averaging 5.5 targets per game with seven targets each of the last two weeks. Conklin now catches a Chargers defense that is 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. He’s a desirable streaming option playing in a game with a 53-point total, the 2nd-greatest of the week.
Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.