Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 11 Stats
Turkey week is upon us! That, naturally, indicates we’ll be dealt with to expert football video games like Lions vs. Bears on Thursday afternoon, however it likewise indicates that we have actually gone into the house stretch for dream football leagues. Now is the time to secure the hatches, disregard your loved ones, and make your last playoff push. To do so, it is very important to distinguish in between what matters and what does not throughout the NFL, however that’s much easier stated than done with many video games to take note of every weekend. The good news is, Strength in Numbers is here to break down the most actionable statistics from around the league in a succinct, numbers-filled format. Let’s solve to it.
1. In the 3 video games leading up to Week 11, Elijah Moore ran a path on 37%, 63%, and 55% of dropbacks. He had 20 targets throughout that stretch, however he was still a part-time gamer. In Week 11, Moore ran 36 paths on 43 Joe Flacco dropbacks (83.7%). He turned his 11 targets into 8 catches for 141 lawns and a goal.
Among the premier pass receiver potential customers in the 2021 class, Moore’s profession left to a rough start as injuries scolded him throughout the early part of the season. When he was healthy, he never ever got on the exact same page as Zach Wilson and split snaps with Keelan Cole.
Moore didn’t begin to make an effect till Wilson got injured and Mike White began slinging the rock. Entering into Week 11, he had 195 lawns and 3 goals in his previous 3 video games, however he was still sharing time with Cole. That altered versus the Dolphins, as the Jets lastly put the Ole Miss item in a full-time function – and he rewarded them handsomely with an exceptional efficiency. New york city’s quarterback scenario is up in the air today with Jets coach Robert Saleh stating they are working to get Wilson his self-confidence back, however the truth stays that Moore has actually carried out well when offered the possibility and has actually now developed himself as a full-time outdoors receiver. The state of the offense restricts his short-term capacity, however dynasty supervisors need to be delighted with what they have actually seen from the novice recently, and he has actually placed himself into the WR4 discussion in season-long formats.
2. Mecole Hardman ran 8 paths on 45 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks. It marked the 2nd successive week that Hardman completed 5 amongst Chiefs pass receivers in paths run. Tyreek Hill blazed a trail with 41, followed by Byron Pringle (30), Demarcus Robinson (23), Josh Gordon (17), and after that Hardman.
It might have been sensible to believe Hardman’s demotion in Week 10 was a blip instead of an indication of things to come, however the truth that it took place once again in Week 11 suggests the third-year speedster actually has actually fallen out of favor with the Chiefs’ training personnel. Kansas City is turning wideouts after Hill, however Hardman has actually been seriously devalued over the previous 2 weeks. After running as the WR2 for the very first half of the season, he has actually now completed 5th in 2 successive video games. Pringle is the leader in the clubhouse, however he still just ran a path on 66.7% of Mahomes’ dropbacks.
Hardman is droppable and unimportant for dream functions, while Pringle needs to be gotten in the bulk of leagues. Still, no Chiefs wideout besides Hill is going to be a trustworthy alternative for dream.
3. Logan Thomas played 100% of snaps in the very first 3 video games of the year prior to getting hurt. Ricky Seals-Jones then actioned in after Thomas’ hamstring injury and never ever played less than 93% of snaps as a starter, consisting of 3 video games in which he played every breeze. Then he got injured. Washington was down to their third-string tight end John Bates in Week 11. Bates played 66-of-67 snaps and ran 24 paths on 27 Taylor Heinicke dropbacks.
It’s practically funny how Washington isn’t changing their TE use at all based upon who their real tight end is. The Football Group’s beginning tight end is a near-lock to play near to every breeze and run a path on the frustrating bulk of pass plays. This does not imply you need to hurry to the waiver wire to get somebody called John Bates, however it’s a circumstance worth watching on just due to the fact that he’s on the field a lot. Bates did just record 3 targets, however that sort of path volume is guaranteeing at a position as barren as tight end. When Seals-Jones and/or Thomas get healthy, they need to instantly restore their every-snap function, however Bates is in some way on the TE2 radar as long as they both stay out. This likewise goes to demonstrate how disorderly an NFL season can actually be: John Bates, Washington’s TE3, is somebody we now need to take note of.
4. With Miles Sanders off hurt reserve, the Eagles made Kenneth Gainwell a healthy scratch. Sanders played 34 snaps, Boston Scott played 29, and Jordan Howard played 13. Sanders ran 11 paths to Scott’s 14 – indicating Scott took control of the function Gainwell held previously this season pre-Sanders injury – and Sanders got 13 reaches Howard’s 10.
Scott was totally undetectable for the very first month of the season, practically solely using unique groups while Sanders and Gainwell shared time at running back. As soon as Sanders decreased, nevertheless, Gainwell really saw his function diminish, and it struck rock bottom in Week 11 with the Memphis item getting scratched in favor of Scott and Howard. Scott took control of the third-down and two-minute function that the novice formerly held. Howard came in for some short-yardage rush plays however just played 13 snaps and primarily delivered his early-down function to Sanders.
Moving on, it appears like Sanders and Scott are the top-two backs for the Eagles. Sanders needs to be the main early-down back with Scott blending in on passing downs. Howard is no longer fantasy-relevant however might be a thorn in the side of Sanders supervisors if they demand keeping him associated with short-yardage scenarios.
5. Brandon Aiyuk ran 24 paths on 25 Jimmy Garoppolo dropbacks, turning 7 targets into 85 lawns and a goal. He has actually now dipped into least 88% of snaps in 4 successive video games, and he has actually notched a minimum of 7 targets in 3 of those video games. Whatever took place in between Aiyuk and the training personnel at the start of the season remains in the rearview mirror, as Aiyuk is distinctly back to being an every-snap gamer along with Deebo Samuel.
This indicates you can formally rely on Aiyuk in dream football once again, as the madness of the very first half of the season lags us. The 49ers just hung back 25 times in a blowout win over the Jaguars, however the second-year receiver led the group in paths with 24 (Samuel ran 23 paths) and paced the group in targets. This might likewise negatively impact Samuel now that he has genuine competitors for wideout targets, however he might decrease a little and still remain in the top-12 based upon how dominant he has actually been this year. If a dynasty supervisor is still cheapening Aiyuk based upon his dog house status from the very first part of the year, the buy window is shutting quickly.
This area will be utilized for statistics I believe deserve pointing out (and for which the takeaway is relatively user-friendly) however aren’t essential adequate to write totally. Let’s get to it:
With Michael Carter banged up, Tevin Coleman got 5 reaches Ty Johnson’s one, however Johnson managed most of passing-down snaps and 3rd downs. Johnson ran 13 paths to Coleman’s 10. Anticipate a comparable split in the coming weeks with Carter out for a couple of video games with an ankle sprain.
Salvon Ahmed was a healthy scratch after the Dolphins raised Duke Johnson from the practice team. Remarkably, Miami utilized Johnson mainly to find Myles Gaskin on early downs, while Patrick Laird kept his function on some 3rd downs. Gaskin was a workhorse with 23 reaches Johnson’s 4, and he likewise ran 22 paths on 35 Tua Tagovailoa dropbacks. As long as Malcolm Brown stays on hurt reserve, Gaskin holds a financially rewarding function, albeit in a substandard offense.
Joshua Deguara scored his very first profession goal and led Packers tight ends in paths – however that’s not stating much when he just had 17 paths on 37 Aaron Rodgers dropbacks. All Green Bay tight ends can be securely disregarded for dream functions.
In his very first video game without Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon played 44-of-59 snaps (74.6%) and ran 19 paths on 37 group dropbacks. He did record 6 targets, however that target-per-route ratio is unsustainable. Still, he’s close to a workhorse with Jones out and stays a must-start in dream.
Jeff Wilson played 32 snaps on Sunday to Trey Preaching’s 17. Nevertheless, 8 of Preaching’s snaps began the last 2 drives when the 49ers were simply icing the video game away. If Elijah Mitchell is out next week, you can confidently start Wilson.
Jamaal Williams played only 13-of-48 snaps in his Week 11 return and got seven carries to D’Andre Swift’s 14. Thursday will be telling as to whether they were simply easing him back in or if they actually want to rely on Swift for the home stretch. Swift was already gaining ground before Williams’ injury, so it’s entirely possible they just ride the second-year back for the rest of the season. He’s an easy RB1.
David Montgomery led all running backs in snap share in Week 11 (95%). Establish The Run’s Adam Levitan pointed out that he has now played 109 snaps over the past 2 weeks to Khalil Herbert’s 17. Montgomery is back to being the three-down workhorse he was pre-injury. Herbert is nothing more than an insurance policy for Montgomery managers.
Dawson Knox ran 40 routes on 42 Josh Allen dropbacks and reeled in 6-of-10 targets for 80 yards. He is a top-12 tight end now that he is back and healthy.
Mark Ingram is in New Orleans. Scottie Phillips is on injured reserve. The Texans waived Phillip Lindsay. And that leaves David Johnson and Rex Burkhead as the Texans’ top-two options at running back. Burkhead had 18 carries (on only 27 snaps!) in Week 11, while Johnson played 35 snaps, ran 17 routes on 29 Tyrod Taylor dropbacks, and handled 13 carries. Johnson is entrenched as the team’s pass-catching back like he has been all year, and Burkhead looks like the primary early-down rusher. On a team as bad as the Texans, Burkhead is going to be impossible to trust in fantasy, but Johnson could be a PPR flex.
Dontrell Hilliard took over the Jeremy McNichols role with McNichols out due to a concussion. Hilliard played 51-of-81 snaps and ran a monster 37 routes on 54 Tennessee dropbacks. The Titans were somehow in negative video game script all day against the Texans, leading to more snaps for Hilliard. McNichols should regain his role once he’s healthy, so don’t overreact to Hilliard’s Week 11 utilization. D’Onta Foreman and Adrian Peterson continued to split early-down snaps.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned off injured reserve and got 12 reaches Darrel Williams’ five, while Williams ran 25 paths to CEH’s 15. That’s probably how this split is going to work moving forward: Edwards-Helaire will handle the bulk of brings with Williams being available in on passing downs.
Thanks for checking out the Week 11 edition of Strength in Numbers! Inspect back next week for the Week 12 variation.
Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.