Riding the Colts and Bills over the Jaguars and Jets

You did it. You made it to the recently in your NFL survivor swimming pool. Now all you need to do is make it through Week 18 and after that choose whether you’ll report your earnings to Uncle Sam (those self-governing military drones aren’t going to purchase themselves). Prior to we zero in on today’s choices, here’s a fast debriefing on how we fared recently:

Week 17 choices

Best Options: 2-0 (YTD: 24-7)

Leans: 2-0 (YTD: 19-3)

Traps to prevent: 0 removals prevented (YTD: 12)

On to the Week 18 choices!

All lines from BetMGM.

BEST OPTIONS

Jacksonville has actually dropped 8 in a row, losing by approximately almost 18 points per video game. It’s the lowest-scoring group in the NFL, tallying 79 less points than its 30th location surface in 2020. Another loss on Sunday would clinch the very first choice in the 2022 draft for Shad Khan’s franchise. Whomever the Jaguars choose will have a more stressful journey strolling to the phase to shake the commissioner’s hand than any ballcarrier has actually had versus the Jags’ hurrying defense since late. Over the last 3 video games, Jacksonville is giving up a league-high 176.3 lawns per video game on the ground, establishing NFL hurrying leader Jonathan Taylor for the sort of stat-padding day that would make Nate Silver’s eyes roll into the back of his head. The Colts are a strong dark horse to go through the AFC playoffs and an even more powerful bet to stomp a group that’s so bad, its fans are preparing to appear to the video game in clown outfits.

Almost 22% of entries are on Indy today, making it the second-most popular choice.

The wheels were falling off the Bucs wagon recently, up until the Jets sprang into action like a NASCAR pit team hopped up on energy beverages to assist Tampa tighten up its lug nuts. New york city’s Week 10 video game versus the Expenses was more like a damage derby where Buffalo had a beast truck and the Jets had a battery-powered electrical toy cars and truck. As excellent as Josh Allen and the offense have actually been, the Expenses defense ranks 3rd in DVOA, enabling the least passing lawns per video game (172.9), the second-fewest points per video game (17.4), and the most affordable conclusion portion (56.9%). Jets novice QB Zach Wilson owns the most affordable conclusion portion of any beginning quarterback and the second-lowest QB ranking this year. A Costs success will clinch the AFC East and send out the New york city Jets back to New Jersey to concentrate on their legal fights.

Hardly 9% of entries have actually secured Buffalo. It’s the fifth-most popular choice, that makes it a terrific play today.

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets 45-17 in Week 10. (Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Expenses beat the New york city Jets 45-17 in Week 10. (Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)

LEANS

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Denver Broncos

Patrick Mahomes is unbeaten in his profession versus Denver, and Kansas City has actually won its last 12 video games versus its northern most department competitor. With a win on Saturday, the Chiefs will briefly hold the AFC’s front runner. What’s standing in their method? A Broncos group that’s lost 4 of its last 5 and just topped 13 points as soon as because period. The Broncos are equivalent parts average and dismaying, like a reheated frozen dinner. Absolutely nothing about this group has actually enhanced considering that its 22-9 loss to Kansas City 5 weeks back. I’ll put my chips and my Salisbury steak on Andy Reid beating the Broncos yet once again in a must-win video game.

Simply over 14% of entries are on the Chiefs.

OTHER SELECTS TO CONSIDER

You might not have the preceding groups delegated choose in your swimming pool, so here are some other alternatives:

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

They entered into Seattle as underdogs in Week 11 and beat the Seahawks by double-digits behind Colt McCoy’s 328 passing lawns. Arizona would clinch the NFC West with a win here and a Rams loss to the Niners.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sean Payton in a must-win video game versus a group that ranks 30th in total DVOA.

CATCHES TO PREVENT

Tennessee Titans (-10.5) at Houston Texans

Nearly 20% of entries are on a Titans team that has a history of playing to the level of its competitors and lost to the Texans in your home by several ratings. Ryan Tannehill tossed 4 interceptions that video game and hasn’t looked that terrific this season.

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears

I would not feel comfy taking a group that has absolutely nothing to bet. The Bears have actually won their last 2 contests as Matt Nagy tries to show that he should have a head training job.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Cleveland Browns

Almost 4% of entries are on the Bengals, even after it’s been revealed that Cincinnati will be resting beginners. 

Duplicates offered by Pro Football Referral, Football Outsiders, teamrankings.com and nfl.com.

Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.