Plenty of questions remain about rotation
Giants have actually created high-risk, high-reward group of beginners initially appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea
The Mark Melancon agreement is frequently deemed the one that sunk the previous Giants front workplace, however as the company took an action back economically the last number of years, a larger issue was the costs spree after the 2015 season.
In desperate requirement of innings-eaters, the Giants offered $230 million to right-handers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. While both had their highs — Cueto was the All-Star starter in 2016 and Samardzija had 3 seasons above 2.5 WAR — the Giants didn’t get what they expected from the choices made that offseason.
Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris have actually taken the total opposite method. In 3 seasons under Zaidi, the Giants have not provided a beginning pitcher a multi-year offer. It’s a revolving door of people aiming to set themselves up for the next huge offer, which has actually exercised well sometimes, however likewise sets the Giants up for a prospective issue in 2021.
Today we have actually taken a look at infield and outfield groups that ought to be strengths. Today, the rotation, which might be a cumulative deal, or the vulnerable point of the lineup …
On the 40-man lineup
Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez
Gausman signed the certifying deal to return at $18.9 million, DeSclafani got $6 million ensured, and Wood took $3 million to rejoin a Zaidi team. The 3 might be Gabe Kapler’s leading 3 beginners this year, and like the other 2 noted here, you can take either side of the argument about where they’re headed in 2021.
Gausman had a 3.09 FIP and a career-high strikeout rate in the reduced season, and the 30-year-old appears to have actually chosen an excellent strategy, assaulting players with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and completing them off with a split-change that was ravaging in 2015. The Giants believe he can get back at much better, however Gausman needs to show he can bring that production over 33 starts. He nearly undoubtedly will be the opening day starter.
Cueto had the worst PERIOD amongst certified NL beginners in 2020 and there’s very little in his profile that recommends that was a fluke. However … he is another complete year gotten rid of from Tommy John surgical treatment, and there will be a bit more inspiration as he goes through an agreement year.
Wood was an All-Star in 2017 and DeSclafani pitched like one for long stretches of 2019. But Wood has made just nine starts the last two years and DeSclafani had a 7.22 ERA last year. It’s not hyperbole to say that as these two go, the Giants will go. If they’re this year’s Gausman-Smyly combo, the Giants will stay in the postseason race. If they’re not, the Giants will likely finish fourth in the NL West.
Webb had a disappointing 2020, posting a 5.47 ERA and finishing the year in the bullpen. He’s still just 24, though, and the Giants remain hopeful he can be a long-term anchor for the rotation. That brings us to Beede, the wild card here. He’s hitting every checkpoint in his return from Tommy John and should be an option in May. Beede was showing top-of-rotation stuff before he got hurt, but the Giants won’t place too much on his shoulders this season.
Menez threw pretty well out of the bullpen last season but was sent to the alternate site early and never returned. Right now there’s not much ahead of him at Triple-A, although the Giants will add more starting depth.
The Giants released a list of 11 non-roster invitees late last year that included a few Triple-A depth options. The standout is Anthony Banda, a lefty who was brought in late last season from the Rays but never left the alternate site.
This is one area where there likely will be additions before camp opens next week or even over the following couple of weeks. There are a ton of starters still out there looking for jobs, and the Giants can offer a pretty decent spring training opportunity. Old friends Trevor Cahill and Tyler Anderson would make sense as swingmen.
Player to watch this spring: Alex Wood
Wood has had a solid big league career and is less than four years gotten rid of from being one of the National League’s best starters. He’s just 30, showed good velocity in the postseason, threw really well in the World Series and has actually the kind of analytical approach that will be a perfect fit with Andrew Bailey, Brian Bannister and J.P. Martinez. Sounds good, right?
Of course, there’s a reason he was available on a small incentive-filled deal in January. Injuries limited him to seven starts in 2019 with the Reds and two last year with the Dodgers. If Wood is healthy and throwing well he could be the No. 2 starter behind Gausman, so a lot of eyes will be on his bullpen sessions and Cactus League starts.
Prospects to watch
The Giants have two catchers of the future, a bunch of high-ceiling outfielders on the way, and Marco Luciano, Will Wilson and others to fill infield spots. What they don’t have a lot of is guys who can be surefire top-of-the-rotation arms when the young hitters start to arrive.
Seth Corry is the best of the bunch, and he and fellow lefty Kyle Harrison seem the two likeliest to take the leap and potentially be a homegrown ace. Corry had a 1.76 ERA in Augusta in 2019 and struck out 12.6 batters per nine, and while he wasn’t at the alternate site, the Giants were thrilled with what he accomplished on his own last summer. The 22-year-old figures to spend most of this season in High-A.
Harrison was an over-slot third-round pick and showed up in instructs topping out at 97 mph, but he hasn’t thrown a minor league inning yet, so he’s far from being an option.
Right-handers Sean Hjelle and Tristan Beck are two polished starters who should be ready to debut this season. Most Giants fans know Hjelle’s story by now, but Beck, acquired in the Mark Melancon deal, is someone to watch. His stuff ticked up after the trade. Nick Swiney, taken 67th overall last summer, is the other starting pitching prospect who generally ranks highly among evaluators, with Kai-Wei Teng a popular “sleeper” pick.
The Giants will always be able to attract veteran starters, but the rebuild will be a lot easier if a couple of these guys show massive improvement in 2021.
Number to know: 63 1/3
This was Cueto’s innings total from 2020, with Gausman and Anderson right behind him at 59 2/3. It’s impossible to predict how veteran pitchers will react to a normal 162-game season after throwing so few innings last year, but the Giants are preparing for an increase in injuries and rest days.
“Even the traditional 200-inning guys are coming off seasons where they threw maybe 70 innings because of the shortened year,” Zaidi said last month. “I think managing workloads and making sure you have enough depth to get through the season from a pitching standpoint is going to be really important … it’s not out of the question we could add a veteran knowing that in a usual year you need nine, 10, 11 starters to get through 162 games, and that number might be higher in 2021.”
That’s before you account for the fact that Wood has had trouble staying healthy recently and Webb has never thrown more than 105 innings in a calendar year. The Giants were extremely cautious with their starters early on last year and figure to be the same way early this season, so yes, they need to add at least a couple more capable arms.
Opening day projection
Right now, it’s Gausman on April 1 in Seattle, followed by the other four in some order. If the Giants do need to make a change, Webb stands out as a guy who can maybe be held back early in the year simply because he’s probably facing another innings restriction.
The Giants have three off days in the first 15 days of the season and do not require a fifth starter until April 13, their 11th game of the year. Zaidi and Harris aren’t going to let that go to waste, so expect an extra reliever those very first 10 video games, even if that’s Webb serving in a bulk innings function.
Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.