Joe Burrow, Bengals are wrong side in Week 14

Favorites blazed a trail recently in the NFL by covering in 8 of 14 video games. It was just the 5th week this season in which they got the upper hand. For the very first time this season, the spread was entirely unimportant in each and every single video game. If you selected the winner, your bet cashed. All 6 underdogs that covered were likewise moneyline winners.

Underdogs winning outright have actually been a lot more typical than gamblers winning their bets since they took the points. Underdogs are 105-89 ATS on the season. The 105 underdog winners have actually won the video game outright in 78 video games. That’s an impressive 78-27 to the moneyline, yielding a 74% hit rate!

The choice to play an underdog on the moneyline need to be handicapped on a game-by-game basis. In regards to worth, I do not believe there is much of an argument that your wagering card needs to include some underdogs at moneyline rates. Why pay -110 chances for points on every bet if you are just going to require them 26% of the time?

Recently, we profited from 2 roadway underdogs that brought us home the win at plus-money rates. The two-team moneyline parlay cashed at +405 chances providing us a great payment. I am targeting 2 more roadway underdogs to win today. The two-team ML parlay chances are presently +330 at BetMGM.

Atlanta (+115) at Carolina

The Sam Darnold recovery task has actually put Matt Rhule on the hot seat in Carolina. After viewing Panthers quarterbacks integrate for a 33% conclusion portion in a 23-point loss to Miami, Rhule persuaded himself OC planner Joe Brady was the issue. The extremely concerned Brady was dismissed, and Carolina’s head coach openly vowed to run the football more.

The Panthers capture among the worst pass defenses in the league and merely do not have a functional quarterback to exploit it. Carolina is 31st in passing DVOA and tossed for just 134 lawns versus Miami. Now the Panthers get in a video game under a severe quantity of pressure without an offending planner.

I’m a lot more positive in the Falcons’ offense finding success versus a challenger that has actually enabled 60 points over the previous 2 weeks. Atlanta has actually rattled the eighth-most explosive run plays this season while Carolina enables the 5th a lot of. Atlanta will get the huge plays to win field position. The Carolina defense is likewise 32nd in protective performance in “late/close” video games, according to Football Outsiders. That’s precisely the kind of video game we need to see on Sunday.

I can’t validate taking the Panthers in this area, that makes the Falcons a live moneyline pet. Carolina has actually been among the most vulnerable favorites in the NFL. Given that Week 4, they are 0-4 as a preferred and lost all 4 video games outright.

San Francisco (+100) at Cincinnati

We bet Cincy as little favorites recently, and we are going right back at them once again. Joe Burrow might have the ability to play through his pinky injury, however it’s going to affect his efficiency. Temperature levels are anticipated to be in the low 40s, and it will be more challenging for the second-year QB to grip the ball. Turnover margin is the single most predictive metric that identifies the winner in NFL video games. Burrow has actually tossed the third-most interceptions this season, and the injury does reduce his capability to safeguard the football. Zac Taylor will need to lean on Burrow much more without a totally healthy Joe Mixon. I see difficulty for a Bengals offense versus a 49ers defense that ranks Leading 10 in protective DVOA.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense is lastly clicking after beginning gradually the very first half of the year. Given that their bye, the 49ers have actually ranked leading 5 in offending EPA per play over the last 7 weeks. San Francisco is 4th as a group in net lawns per play while its offense holds a substantial benefit over the Bengals defense in red-zone performance (2nd vs. 26th). In a close video game, scoring a goal rather of a basket is the distinction in between wins and losses. The 49ers are the much better group and this is the best area to wager them versus the banged-up Bengals.

Duplicates supplied by Sharp football statistics, teamrankings.com, rbsdm.com, and Football Outsiders.

Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.