Is Martin Truex Jr. an overpriced favorite at Richmond?

Martin Truex Jr. is a deserving favorite heading into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway, however priced at 4/1 chances at several sportsbooks, the No. 19 Toyota might be too costly a proposal for gamblers.

Those chances, which can likewise be revealed as +400 (wager $100 to win $400), equate into a 20% opportunity of winning the race.

Truex has actually been excellent this season, being in 2nd in the standings and boasting 2 wins in the very first 8 races. Those 2 wins, in reality, have actually come at Phoenix and Martinsville, tracks handicappers utilize as contrasts for Richmond.

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Truex’s previous efficiencies at Richmond have actually likewise been exceptional. He’s completed second, initially, very first and 3rd over the last 4 Cup occasions on this three-quarter miler, and in the 2 previous Richmond races prior to that, he led 121 and 198 laps.

Sharp gamblers make their plays based upon worth. If the chances suggest a higher percent opportunity than a motorist genuinely has, for instance, they’ll keep away.

“It’s difficult to reject he’s fantastic at Richmond and he‘s great at these types of tracks. The question is, is he really a 20-25 percent favorite to win, which is what the betting markets are suggesting,” Blake Phillips, a sharp NASCAR bettor, said of Truex this week.

Ed Salmons, who handles NASCAR oddsmaking at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, adjusted his original numbers in Truex‘s direction. On Monday, he hung Truex and Denny Hamlin both at +450. Upon reflection, he made Truex the sole favorite at +400 and lengthened Hamlin to +500

“I made my spreadsheet, and then I thought about it, and I’m like, ‘Truex has to be the favorite.’ The 9/2 was most likely a bit high, so I simply modified it a bit. I went ‘5’ on Hamlin, ‘4’ on Truex and simply generally changed all of his matches up about 20 cents.”

For instances of Salmons’ match modifications, Truex went from -110 (wager $110 to win $100) to -130 (wager $130 to win $100) vs. Hamlin, and from -135 to -150 vs. Brad Keselowski.

“He definitely seems like the guy to beat,” Salmons continued, “and it’s funny, because last week (at Martinsville), his car really was nothing special. You saw his track position. But once it turned to nighttime, all of a sudden you could see it come to life around lap 400. He was definitely clicking off the best lap times the rest of the race.”

The majority of leisure gamblers tend to put excessive weight on what they saw last, and the general public’s awaited lean to Truex most likely elements into his chances being so brief.

“(Public bettors) are gonna go heavy on Truex no matter what,” stated Phillips. “I think that‘s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite. A little bit of recency bias going on, and the fact that he’s great on short flat tracks and especially Richmond.”

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If not Truex, then who?

The tip above is not that Truex doesn’t have a fantastic opportunity to win Sunday — he certainly does —just that at 4/1 chances, he might be misestimated.

The SuperBook oddsboard has 5 other motorists priced in the single digits, and Salmons provides all of them a shot. As any NASCAR observer might have thought, these men all originate from among 3 garages — Gibbs, Penske or Hendrick.

In addition to Truex and Hamlin, Salmons stated, “You can never count out Logano (8/1) and Keselowski (6/1) here. Kyle Larson (7/1) has been fast all year. Martinsville has never really been his thing, and I thought he ran a decent race for him there (finished fifth last weekend). It was a non-mistake race. I would put Chase (Elliott) and Kyle Larson in there and the two Penske guys. I think one those six is your winner.”

Included Phillips, “You‘re generally going to see the same guys you expect to see up there. Joey Logano’s gonna be in advance, Denny Hamlin‘s gonna be up front. I think Kyle Larson is gonna be a guy to watch this week, and William Byron — those are guys who are not favorites to win the race, but I think they have a lot of attributes that are going to favor them.”

Also per the NASCAR.com Power Rankings, where he‘s listed No. 5, Byron deserves a look at juicy 20/1 odds. Ryan Blaney ranks No. 6 on NASCAR.com‘s list and can be had for 16/1, but Salmons downplays the No. 12 Ford’s possibilities.

“I’ve followed Blaney at this track for years and for whatever reason, he’s so bad here (24.8 average finish). I read a quote after the race last year, and he said how much time they spent on the Richmond race. Their biggest issue has always been their tire fall off is just so dramatic. So they really worked on it to try to run different early in a run or whatever, and the same thing happened again.”

Blaney’s finest surface at Richmond is 17th in the 2019 Fall race.

“I don’t know why he can’t drive Richmond. On TV, it doesn’t look like a real technical track, but obviously there’s something there. I mean, he’s just never been competitive here, let alone winning.”

Marcus DiNitto is an author and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has actually been covering sports for almost two-and-a-half years and sports wagering for more than ten years. His very first NASCAR wagering experience remained in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his match choices. Read his posts and follow him on Twitter; do not wager his choices.

Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.