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Each NFL playoff team’s chances to win championship games and Super Bowl


The AFC champion is likely to be decided in an NFC team’s stadium, and the Eagles and 49ers could be a pick ’em if they meet for the NFC Championship.

Those are the indications of The Athletic’s NFL playoff probability model run by Austin Mock entering this weekend’s divisional round. The model favors the Chiefs and Bills to meet in the AFC Championship Game in Atlanta and gives the Eagles and 49ers an almost even chance to reach the Super Bowl should they meet in Philadelphia on Jan. 29.

The following is a breakdown, by conference, of each team’s chances to win its conference championship and the Super Bowl based on the model’s projection.

AFC playoff projection

Team

  

Win conference

  

Win Super Bowl

  

41.6 percent

22.0 percent

36.1 percent

18.1 percent

14.5 percent

6.9 percent

7.8 percent

3.5 percent

NFC playoff projection

Team

  

Win conference

  

Win Super Bowl

  

35.1 percent

17.5 percent

33.1 percent

16.8 percent

20.3 percent

10.2 percent

11.5 percent

5.0 percent

And a breakdown of the entire playoff field:

Full field projection

Team

  

Win conference

  

Win Super Bowl

  

41.6 percent

22.0 percent

36.1 percent

18.1 percent

35.1 percent

17.5 percent

33.1 percent

16.8 percent

20.3 percent

10.2 percent

14.5 percent

6.9 percent

11.5 percent

5.0 percent

7.8 percent

3.5 percent

(Photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)





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