Darren Till the favorite, but Derek Brunson the better bet
LAS VEGAS — It’s difficult to understand what to make from Darren Till. The UFC middleweight has actually lost 3 of his last 4 and was completed in 2 of them. His only win because duration was a split choice over Kelvin Gastelum.
And yet, Till is still ranked seventh in the deep welterweight department.
He’s dealing with yet another considerable test on Saturday, when he fulfills fifth-ranked Derek Brunson at Pinnacle in the primary occasion of UFC Vegas 36. It’s an important battle, considered that a loss would most likely drop him out of the leading 10 and a win, especially a remarkable one, would likely rise him into the leading 5.
Till is a -175 preferred at BetMGM to end his slide and defeat Brunson on Saturday. Brunson is +145.
Brunson is on a four-fight winning streak, throughout which time he’s beat Kevin Holland, Edmen Shahbazyan, Ian Heinisch and Elias Theodorou.
To break the battle down to its many fundamental would be to take a look at it as Brunson’s fumbling versus Till’s striking. Brunson’s likewise a much better striker than Till is a wrestler, so it would appear he has rather of an edge.
In his last 2 wins, over Holland and Shahbazyan, he dealt with 2 elite potential customers whose profiles were as high-end strikers. Holland, in specific, was a one-dimensional fighter at the time, and Brunson utilized his battling to take the battle down and manage him.
It wasn’t quite sometimes however it was extremely efficient. Holland is among those explosive professional athletes who has excellent KO power and can end up a battle in the blink of an eye. Those very same characteristics might be offered to Till, also.
So that would make sense that Brunson would look to get Till on his back early and often.
But according to UFCstats.com, Brunson’s striking accuracy is slighting better than Till’s — 47 percent to 46 percent — and he absorbs 2.72 strikes per minute compared to 2.99 for Till.
Till, though, has an 82 percent takedown defense while Brunson’s takedown accuracy is only 33 percent.
That said, the fight might be Brunson repeatedly shooting on Till and forcing Till to defend. Even if he’s not able to get Till down a lot, just making him defend the takedowns repeatedly plays into Brunson’s hands. Every second that Till isn’t firing his heavy hands at Brunson is a second that plays out in favor of Brunson.
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That, to me, is the difference in the battle and why I will take the plus money and bet Brunson. I will bet $100 on Brunson to win at +145. Though the prop bets haven’t been released at BetMGM, I’ll also bet on the battle to go the range.
Other plays for UFC Vegas 36
Tom Aspinall at -250 to win over Sergey Spivak, who is +200.
Khalil Rountree at +130 to win over Modestas Bukauskas, who is -155.
Paddy Pimblett at -145 to win over Luigi Vendramini, who is +120.
Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.