COVID-19 Cases: The Pandemic’s Future Hangs in Suspense

Race and ethnicity information wrap-up: For 11 months, we now have proven that the COVID-19 race and ethnicity information printed by U.S. states are patchy and incomplete—and that they nonetheless have indicated main inequities within the pandemic’s results. Each of this stuff are true of the demographic information out there from the CDC: Many information are lacking, and what information are reported present ongoing disparities. Our introduction to the federal information will probably be posted later this week, and we’ll be publishing deeper analyses within the coming weeks.

As we wind down our compilation efforts, the USA is at an important second within the pandemic: Decisive motion now’s our greatest probability at stopping a fourth surge in circumstances and outpacing the variants, which can be extra transmissible than the unique virus in accordance with preliminary (preprint) information. Over the weekend, the FDA issued a 3rd Emergency Use Authorization for a COVID-19 vaccine, this time for Janssen/Johnson & Johnson’s adenovirus vector vaccine, which confirmed spectacular security and efficacy ends in its world scientific trials. The Biden administration introduced Tuesday that the U.S. ought to have sufficient COVID-19 vaccine doses for each grownup by the top of Could—a dramatic acceleration from earlier timelines.

In the meantime, considerations over an uptick in variant circumstances are rising in Florida after researchers famous that 25 p.c of analyzed samples from Miami-Dade County’s Jackson Well being public hospital have been circumstances of B.1.1.7. Though partnerships between the CDC and different labs have elevated the variety of specimens sequenced from about 750 every week in January to 7,000–10,000 every week in late February, this nonetheless permits for the sequencing of lower than 3 p.c of all circumstances in the USA.

Bar chart with genomic sequencing volume from the CDC. Sequenced specimens peaked at 7,000-10,000 per week in February
Genomic sequencing quantity chart from the CDC

New York Metropolis has promised to quadruple the variety of samples it sequences in the course of the month of March, from 2,000 to eight,000 every week, which is greater than the whole nation’s labs sequenced within the week ending February 27.

Immediately’s weekly replace is our thirty ninth and final. We started writing them again in June 2020 as a approach of providing a deeper interpretation of knowledge factors that was much less jittery than these within the every day tweets. As we puzzled by means of the information and watched for indications of fixing tendencies, we’ve tried to assist individuals perceive what has occurred to us because the pandemic has ebbed and surged.

Though our information compilation will come to an finish on Sunday, March 7, our work on the COVID Monitoring Mission will proceed in different kinds for one more few months, as our groups full their long-term analyses and wrap up documentation and archiving efforts. We’ll proceed to submit our work on the CTP website and hyperlink to it on Twitter till we lastly shut up store in late spring.

All year long that we’ve compiled this information, we’ve tried to elucidate not solely what we predict the information imply, however how we got here to our conclusions—and the way we examined and challenged our personal analyses. We hope that one results of our doing this work in public is that our readers really feel higher ready to do the identical for themselves and their communities.

The federal authorities is now publishing extra and higher COVID-19 information than ever earlier than. Some gaps stay, however far fewer than at any earlier second within the pandemic. To these of you who’ve relied on our work this yr, thanks in your belief. We’ve tried very exhausting to deserve it, and we consider that we’re leaving you in good palms.

Mandy Brown, Artis Curiskis, Alice Goldfarb, Erin Kissane, Alexis C. Madrigal, Kara Oehler, Jessica Malaty Rivera, and Peter Walker contributed to this report.

Jobber Wiki writer Frank Lengthy added to this report.