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Bills vs. Packers odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 148-107 roll

A jam-packed Week 8 Sunday NFL slate concludes with a high-profile matchup in primetime. The Buffalo Bills will host the Green Bay Packers in a battle between teams with big-name quarterbacks on Sunday Night Football. Josh Allen leads a Bills team with a 5-1 record and a 2-0 mark at home this season. Aaron Rodgers keys a Packers squad that is struggling after three straight losses and a 3-4 overall mark in 2022. The Bills are 4-1-1 against the spread, while the Packers are 2-5.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Buffalo. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bills as 10.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47 in the latest Bills vs. Packers odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Bills picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 148-107 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Bills and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 8 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Packers spread: Bills -10.5 
  • Bills vs. Packers over/under: 47 points 
  • Bills vs. Packers money line: Bills -550, Packers +400 
  • GB: Packers are 2-5 against the spread this season 
  • BUF: Bills are 4-1-1 against the spread this season 
  • Bills vs. Packers picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers

Why the Packers can cover

The Packers lead the NFL in passing defense, allowing only 168.9 yards per game. Green Bay is also in the top five in allowing only six passing touchdowns, and opponents are averaging only 5.9 net yards per pass attempt. The Packers are also in the top eight in total defense, yielding fewer than 310 yards per game and 29.4 yards per drive. Green Bay has a sparkling 30% third down conversion rate allowed, and the Packers have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL at 39%. 

In the red zone, Green Bay gets better, keeping opponents out of the end zone on 55.6% of trips inside the 20-yard line, and the Packers are in the top five  in first downs allowed. Rashan Gary gives the Packers a strong pass-rusher off the edge, generating six sacks, seven tackles for loss, and ten quarterback hits, and he anchors a very strong defensive attack. See which team to back here.

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is arguably the most complete and dominant team in the NFL. The Bills have a plus-95 point differential in six games, leading the league, and have a seven-game winning streak in games after a bye. The Bills lead the NFL in total offense this season, averaging 440.8 yards per game, and are averaging a whopping 41.9 yards per drive. Buffalo is No. 2 in scoring offense, averaging 29.3 points per game, with an average of 2.65 points per drive. Buffalo leads the NFL in third down efficiency at 52%, with top-two marks in passing offense and first downs. 

The Bills are also in the top five in passing touchdowns, interceptions, and net yards per attempt, with a top-10 mark in the league in yards per carry (4.8) on the ground. With Buffalo also leading the league in scoring defense (13.5 points allowed per game) and total defense (281.5 yards allowed per game), the Bills are difficult to beat, even before accounting for home-field advantage and an extra week of rest against a scuffling opponent. See which team to back here.

How to make Bills vs. Packers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with no rusher projected to reach 55 yards on the ground. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s SNF pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Packers vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 148-107 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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