Best bets for UFC 270 including Ngannou-Gane
On résumé alone, it’s Francis Ngannou by a landslide over Ciryl Gane. In their fight for the heavyweight title on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV) at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, it’s Ngannou who has the huge names on his résumé.
Though Gane deconstructed Derrick Lewis completely in catching the interim heavyweight title, the Frenchman hasn’t dealt with almost the opposition that Ngannou has in his storied UFC profession.
Ngannou is 16-3 with 16 surfaces in his mixed martial arts profession, which started in 2013. Gane is 10-0 with 7 surfaces.
Ngannou, however, has KO wins over 4 previous UFC heavyweight champs — Andrei Arlovski (1:32 of the very first); Cain Velasquez (26 seconds of the very first); Junior dos Santos (1:11 of the very first) and Stipe Miocic (52 seconds of the 2nd) — while Gane has a TKO of dos Santos.
However Gane is preferred at BetMGM by an increasing margin. Since early afternoon Wednesday Pacific time, Gane was a -150 preferred, with Ngannou at +125.
Much of that is since of the design Gane utilizes. He’s most likely the most athletic heavyweight the UFC has actually ever had, and he utilized his speed and footwork to optimum benefit versus Lewis. Lewis is the UFC’s all-time knockout leader, however he hardly touched Gane in their battle at UFC 265.
Gane’s efficiency was similar to the numerous nothings that super star fighter Floyd Mayweather pitched, where he stayed client while breaking down his challenger and preventing damage.
When Gane had adequately used Lewis down, he assaulted and the battle was stopped with Lewis dropping along the cage at 4:11 of the 3rd round.
Ngannou’s benefit is that he’s the hardest puncher in UFC history and it just takes one punch for him to end a bout. He’s 11-2 in the UFC and has actually won 8 of his 11 UFC bouts by first-round surface. Among those, however, was a submission of Anthony Hamilton. The other 7 were KOs.
And they weren’t garden-variety KOs, either. They were violent, vicious knockouts in which observers needed to hold their breath to ensure the challenger got up.
It’s luring to get a man with that sort of power at +125. However there’s a factor that fighters generally win the fighter versus slugger matches that happen. It’s because, as Muhammad Ali would state in his “Float Like a Butterfly” battle poems, your hands can’t strike what your eyes can’t see.
Gane understands how to utilize his variety and he has strong kicks that need to allow him to keep Ngannou from swarming him and tossing huge shots.
The more huge shots Ngannou tosses, the more his possibility of landing one increases and the more he lands, the most likely it is he’ll end the battle.
So Gane will need to restrict Ngannou’s output and tire him out. Ngannou’s only gone 2 rounds two times in his profession, and both of them were losses, to Miocic and Lewis in 2018.
I’ll lay the $150 and play Gane to win, expecting a $100 revenue.
Other UFC 270 bets
• I like the flyweight title battle in between champ Brandon Moreno and previous champ Deiveson Figueiredo. They attracted the very first one and Figueiredo kept the title, however Moreno sent Figueiredo in the 2nd and won the belt.
Figueiredo’s most significant concern at flyweight has actually constantly been making weight, however he looks amazing in images he published. He’s been training with ex-champion Henry Cejudo and looks as fit as he’s ever been.
Moreno is now approximately -175 which’s getting a bit much. As I see it, this is much closer to a choice‘em fight so I’ll take Figueiredo at +145.
• I will take Andre Fialho (+250) in his UFC launching to beat Michel Pereira, who is -300.
• I like Kay Hansen (-245) to win over Jasmine Jasudavicius (+200).
Jobber Wiki author Frank Long contributed to this report.