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Bengals vs. Dolphins odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions by dialed-in model

The Miami Dolphins are hoping quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will answer the bell on Thursday Night Football when they take on the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. Tagovailoa suffered ankle and back injuries in last Sunday’s 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins are off to a 3-0 start after going 9-8 a year ago. The Bengals (1-2) rolled over the New York Jets 27-12 after dropping their first two games to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Dolphins are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season, while the Bengals are 1-2.

Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Bengals vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals and just locked in its picks and TND predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bengals:

  • Bengals vs. Dolphins spread: Cincinnati -3.5
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under: 48.5 points 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins +162, Bengals -195
  • MIA: Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games 
  • CIN: Bengals have covered seven straight games against teams with winning records 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Bengals can cover

Quarterback Joe Burrow had his best game of the season last Sunday against the New York Jets, passing for 275 yards and three scores for a 114.9 rating. Burrow has also played well in his two previous Thursday Night Football games, throwing for a total of 664 yards and five touchdowns. He will try to pass for 300-plus yards and two-plus touchdown passes for his third TNF game in a row. Burrow is tough to beat at home. In 14 career home starts, he has 4,467 yards passing, an average of 319.1 per game, and 30 touchdowns.

Also enjoying success in his home stadium is running back Joe Mixon. In his past 12 home games, Mixon has rushed for 11 touchdowns and added a pair of receiving scores. In his last home meeting against the Dolphins, Mixon had 115 yards from scrimmage (93 rushing, 22 passing) and a touchdown reception. Mixon’s numbers on the season show he has rushed for 163 yards with five first-down conversions and one explosive play of 20 yards or more.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Provided Tua Tagovailoa can go, Miami’s passing game looks formidable. Tagovailoa is second in the league in passing yards with 925 and is tied for third with eight touchdown passes. He will look for a completion percentage of higher than 70 and a passer rating of 120 or higher for the third consecutive start. In his last outing against Cincinnati, he threw for 296 yards and a score.

Miami has a one-two punch at the wide receiver position with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Waddle ranks second in the league with 342 receiving yards, while Hill is third with 317. Against the Bills in Week 3, Waddle caught four passes and registered his third career game with at least 100 receiving yards. In 19 games to start his career, he has 123 receptions, the second-most by a player in his first 20 career games in NFL history. Hill has had success against Cincinnati. In the 2021 AFC Championship Game as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, he had seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. In seven career games on Thursday Night Football, Hill has a touchdown reception in six games.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 48 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.

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