Quite the week in the NFL as we kick off the second half of the season.
The debut of head coach Jeff Saturday happens this Sunday in Las Vegas. The Raiders have cut a player, put two stars on IR and had a player retire all in less than a week. The uncertainty surrounding Josh Allen has made for all one-way traffic on the Vikings and you have a number of other quarterbacks nursing injuries and creating question marks, too: Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill.
It’s a bizarre week for sure to get the second half under way, but situations are changing rapidly, so keep your eyes and ears open for any news.
Here are the games presented in official Nevada rotation order.
We opened the Buccaneers -1.5. They laid it, they laid the 2 and they laid the 2.5. I went to 3 and they took it, so I’m back to 2.5. Both public and sharp play on the Buccaneers at less than 3 but sharp play on Seattle plus the 3. They laid me -140 and -145 on the money line. I’m currently at -145/+125. No movement on the total.
We opened 10 and they took it. Now I’m at 9.5 and the public is on the Chiefs. About a 7-to-1 ticket count on the Chiefs. You never have to beg for Chiefs money. I opened the total 49.5, they bet me Over and I went to 50.5, they bet me Over again and I’m at 51.5.
Big move here in this game. We opened 7 and they took it. They took 6.5, they took 6 and I went to 5. They took the 5. I’m now at 4.5 and the sharp action stopped there. The public is on the Giants and the ticket count is about 6-to-1 on New York. I opened the total 39, they bet me Over 39, bet me Over 40, and now I’m at 40.5.
We opened the Saints -2.5. They took it, took the 2, and now I’m at 1.5. We’re writing pretty even business on the 1.5. The total opened 41.5 and they bet me Under, then Under 41.5, Under 41 and now I’m at 40.
We opened 3 on the game. They took the 3, we went to 2.5, and they laid it back. Back and forth here. Sharp guys that like the Bears are laying 2.5 and sharp guys who like the Lions are taking +3. This is the dance I often do because we do everything at 11-to-10, so we’re the only store out there without juice on one side or the other. No movement on the total. Good ticket count both ways but we haven’t moved off of the 48.5.
We opened 4. They took the 4 and now we’re at 3.5. They’re laying back the 3.5 but really just recreational money laying the 3.5, so nothing big enough to move me back to 4. It looks like the sharp money is on the Browns and on the money line, too. They took +175 and I’m now at -180/+160. Another one here on the total. Opened 48.5, good action both ways, but haven’t moved it at all.
This is a huge one. We opened it 8. They took the 8, took the 7.5, took the 7, then we heard all of the Josh Allen news. The action stopped at 6.5 or 6 but very briefly. We went to 5.5 and they took that, took the 5. I skipped 4.5 and went to 4, they took that and then earlier today [Friday] they took the 3.5. It’s all dog money here and, of course, a lot of that is because of the Allen injury. Money line play in this one, too. The biggest bet was at +180 but they also took +165 and +145. I’m down to -165/+145. If and when it is announced that Allen won’t play, I don’t think we will dip under the 3. Case Keenum is a pretty good backup, he’s playing his old team and Stefon Diggs is playing his old team, too. Minnesota is not great as far as my power ratings, not like a typical 7-1 team. This total has also moved a bunch. We opened 48. They bet me Under 48 and when the news started coming in, I went to 46.5. They bet me Under that and I moved it to 45. They bet me Under that and I moved it another point and a half. I’m at 43.5 and that seems to be where the market is.
We opened the Titans -3. They took the 3, we went to 2.5, and I’m writing pretty even business at 2.5. This is another one of those 2.5/3 games where we are the only ones at -110 on either side. It brings in a lot of business and if the game doesn’t land 3, we look like geniuses – but a lot of games fell 3 last week. The latest word I got was that Tannehill was going to play for Tennessee. We opened the total 39 and they bet me Under 39, Under 38, I went to 37.5 and they bet me back Over 37.5, Over 38, and I’m at 39 again. Probably something to do with Tannehill playing or not, how this total has gone back and forth.
As I mentioned, this is the debut of Jeff Saturday. We opened the game 6 and the first bet came in at -6. We went to 6.5 and then they started taking it. Took the 6.5, took the 6, I went to 5 and they took that, so we’re at 4.5 now. We opened the total at 42.5 and we’re down to 41.5, a sharp move.
This is another interesting one. Kyler Murray is questionable. Matthew Stafford is questionable. Colt McCoy is a pretty good back-up, though, for Arizona. Anyway, I opened it 2.5 and they laid the 2.5. We went to 3 and they took the 3, so I go back to 2.5 and they laid it again and we’re back to 3. Injury speculation on the total, too. We opened 43.5 and when the news came in along with some action, we went to 41.5. They bet me Under that and I went to 41, now we’re down to 40.
We opened the game 5. They took the 5 and I went straight to 4 with it. We’re writing even business at the 4. Sharp play on the Packers plus the 5. We opened the total 43, they bet me Over and we’re at 43.5.
We opened 7 and we’re still at 7, but good business both ways. No real wise guy play yet. I think they’re looking for that half-point one way or the other. We opened the total 46.5, they bet me Under and we’re at 45.5.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 44.5)
We opened 11 and are still at 11, haven’t moved it an inch. Pretty good business both ways but no serious play yet. No movement on the total either. Opened 44.5 and haven’t moved it.
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at South Point Hotel in Las Vegas, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years.